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Free to enter · Skill-based

Market Forecast Challenge

Each month, forecast where three markets will close on the last trading day. The most accurate forecasters win. No purchase, no trading account, no luck required.

$2501st prize
$1002nd prize
$503rd prize
–Entries close

The three markets this round

Live

How it works

1. Forecast

Submit your predicted closing value for the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin (USD) and gold (USD/oz) on the month’s final trading day.

2. Lock in

Entries close at 23:59 UTC on the 20th of each month. One entry per person per round.

3. Score

Your score is the sum of absolute percentage errors across the three markets. Lowest score wins. Ties are broken by the earliest entry.

4. Win

Winners are announced in the Monday Market Brief and on this page within 7 days of month end.

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Enter this round

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Official rules (summary)

  1. No purchase necessary. A purchase, donation or subscription does not improve your chance of winning. Entry is free.
  2. Eligibility. Open to individuals aged 18+ (or the age of majority in their jurisdiction). Void where prohibited or restricted by law. Market.Watch staff and their immediate families are not eligible.
  3. Contest of skill. Winners are determined solely by forecast accuracy as described above. Where required by law (for example in Canada), prize winners must correctly answer a time-limited skill-testing mathematical question.
  4. Reference prices. Official closes are taken from the TradingView symbols FOREXCOM:SPXUSD, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and OANDA:XAUUSD at the daily close on the final trading day of the month.
  5. One entry per person per round; duplicate or automated entries are disqualified.
  6. Prizes are paid within 30 days via PayPal, bank transfer or gift card. Winners are responsible for any taxes. Prizes are non-transferable.
  7. Notification. Winners are notified by email and must respond within 14 days, otherwise an alternate winner is selected.
  8. Publicity. Winners agree that their first name and country may be published.
  9. Changes. Market.Watch may modify, suspend or cancel a round in case of fraud, technical failure or events beyond its control.

This contest is for entertainment and education. Forecasts are not investment advice and are not shared as recommendations.

Hall of fame

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Round 1 winner

Announced after the first month closes. Could be you.

🥈

Runner-up

To be announced.

🥉

Third place

To be announced.